Abandon All Fear

What nobody else seems to be saying…

Posts Tagged ‘boom and bust’

[Soul Searching] Vapours

Posted by Lex Fear on May 25, 2009

“Everything is meaningless,” says the Teacher, “completely meaningless!”

What do people get for all their hard work under the sun? Generations come and generations go, but the earth never changes. The sun rises and the sun sets, then hurries around to rise again. The wind blows south, and then turns north. Around and around it goes, blowing in circles. Rivers run into the sea, but the sea is never full. Then the water returns again to the rivers and flows out again to the sea. Everything is wearisome beyond description. No matter how much we see, we are never satisfied. No matter how much we hear, we are not content.

History merely repeats itself. It has all been done before. Nothing under the sun is truly new. Sometimes people say, “Here is something new!” But actually it is old; nothing is ever truly new. We don’t remember what happened in the past, and in future generations, no one will remember what we are doing now.

I, the Teacher, was king of Israel, and I lived in Jerusalem. I devoted myself to search for understanding and to explore by wisdom everything being done under heaven. I soon discovered that God has dealt a tragic existence to the human race. I observed everything going on under the sun, and really, it is all meaningless—like chasing the wind.

What is wrong cannot be made right. What is missing cannot be recovered.

I said to myself, “Look, I am wiser than any of the kings who ruled in Jerusalem before me. I have greater wisdom and knowledge than any of them.” So I set out to learn everything from wisdom to madness and folly. But I learned firsthand that pursuing all this is like chasing the wind.

The greater my wisdom, the greater my grief. To increase knowledge only increases sorrow.

Solomon, Ecclesiastes

A while ago I was discussing politics and the recession with a friend. I was doing what I considered my dutiful task of informing him of how all the decisions of Gordon Brown, since ZaNuLabour rose to power 12 years ago, have led to the bubble in house prices and the subsequent eonomic collapse. But my friend then asked a pertinent question which caused me to consider my very purpose.

If the Conservatives had been in power, would things have been different?

And the very truthful answer to that is, No.

It’s not just a political thing, it’s not just that ZaNuLabour stole Tory policies. It’s the old cliche that absolute power corrupts absolutely – greed, extravagance, gluttony, apathy,  envy, pride and anger. What have we not seen in recent days? There are very few people – and politicians are people – who did not fall into the trap of thinking the good times were never going to end. Everyone was happy to turn a blind eye to the injustices, to the corruption, the expense claims whilst the money kept rolling and the price of their house kept rising.

What would have been different? Nothing. And it’s this answer which has formulated my cynicism and means I will never have absolute faith in politics.

That’s not to say I don’t believe there are individuals who appear at times who see all this and really do want to change the system, but all too often they either fall to the dark side, or they find themselves being chewed up and spat out by a great machine which is fueled by the ignorance of man.

You think our politicians have learned from this boom and bust? You think things will be difference because they are putting rules in place to stop it happening again? Let me tell you that most of them don’t even know how to prevent it, or don’t really care, and of those rules they do make… they will be ignored by future generations just as we have ignored the rules and the lessons of the past.

So why bother even blogging about this, why bother discussing it? The most reward that any of us can get is the option to say “I told you so”, because we all lose. The truth about teamwork is that the team moves forward at the pace of it’s slowest member, and the same is true of humanity. For all our scientific innovations and discoveries, we cannot solve the problem sin. When I use this word, sin, I refer to human failings, things which are inherent in our nature which cause evil – deceit, selfishness, murder, greed, sexual desires, war… but instead of acknowledging these we redefine them. (The idea that someone would have sexual relations with a 10 year old disgusts us and strikes us as immoral, but the boundaries of sexual morality are being increasingly eroded. As adults fight for more sexual freedoms there is nothing to stop this becoming socially acceptible – all that’s needed is to redefine what constitutes being an adult. For instance at 10 years old in England, you can already be tried for a crime as an adult – why can’t you be considered sexually aware?)

But I digress. I have questioned why I should rail against something which cannot and will not be stopped as long as there is an unsanctified human race. A human race of which 1/3 does not even acknowledge God’s existance let alone as Lord. (And of those that do acknowledge and worship God, how many of them are truly taking a stand against corruption and not partaking in it?)

The truth is, I have lost the drive to blog about politics and world affairs, to question the system. I still hold strong political beliefs but since there is no longer any difference between man and pig, I no longer see a purpose in it.

Instead, I’ve taken some time to reflect on blogging, and I am going to go back to my roots in blogging about Christianity and experience – that means I’m still going to post the odd consumer post but I see my primary purpose in apologetics.

It may be something to do with having made my peace with the church.. or at least the church I now attend. It may be something to do with reading and listening to the arguments of atheists more.. which provides me a source of great mirth and sometimes deep thought.

Of course my co-author Hudson has a lot to say about politics and anyone else can be free to join and write for AaF about these topics, but I have said enough, and will now focus on something which is close to my heart.. and I guess, in that way, I’m being true to the subjects I’ve always posted on.. those that are important issues for me.

Posted in Absolute Power, Anecdotes, Apologetics, Bollotics, Financial Terrorism, Metablog, Morals & Ethics, Realpolitik | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

[Economic Meltdown] Flash… Aah Aah He’ll Screw Everyone Of Us

Posted by Lex Fear on February 4, 2009

Overheard at a desk in a major investment bank today:

“This MP basically said that they’re creating an inflationary environment… 15% interest rates, not this year, but over the next 3 years”

Make of it what you will, personally it tells me that everyone in the know is aware of what is coming next and what is needed, but for some reason Flash Gordon and Alistair Darling are out of the loop or didn’t get the memo. It’s also becoming clear that Flash is intending to pull a Zimbabwe and start printing money (he calls this “quantitative easing” – which is another fancy financial bullshit term for printing money).

You see there is only two ways out of a recession, inflation or raising interest rates. You should know what happens when the government uses inflation, it’s been done before by the Weimar Republic and more recently Zanu-PF.

But what about the other tool, interest rates? Well, you see, this would cause millions of feckless, leveraged, mewing borrowers to realise the difference between debt and wealth – can’t have that, or can we?

The fact is we’re dangerously close to the edge of falling into hyperinflation and while its difficult to predict how disastrous this would be we do know that fixed loans would be eroded away, but so would the value of GBP, the value of any savings and investments too (you know, the things used to fund borrowing) – basically our ecomony would become worthless and most likely we’d all end up informally adopting the Euro.

So why does Flash want to print money? There can only be one of three conclusions, either he…

  • Has lost all sense of reality, delusional, thinking he is the saviour of the world
  • Is incompetent. He has no clue what he is doing, no clue how to manage an economy and has sat on top of the biggest economic bubble in the history of the world, taking credit for something he had no part in. Or…
  • Has engineered this, in part, on purpose. The most far reaching conclusion however I can’t help but wonder if he was hoping for a bust sooner, so that it would damage Bliar (and oust him out of office), or even, guessing (or feeling) he will lose an election soon, hoping to pass the bubble on to the Tories just before it burst (securing a short term for them, allowing him to be elected back into power at the next election). Far reaching but not inconceivable – considering all the warnings he has ignored over the 10 years he was Chancellor.

Whatever the reasons for his contempt of savers, the UK economy and the poor, all his actions are delaying the inevitable (and making it worse)… depression and potentially more civil unrest.

Posted in Absolute Power, Bank Robbers, Bollotics, Doublethink, Financial Terrorism, Minitruth, Pharisees, Uncircumcised Philistines, Wealth Creation, WhatTheyDontWantU2C | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

[Interest Rates] Home Spun Prophecies

Posted by Lex Fear on May 11, 2007

4 Years Ago

15 July 2003 – The Great Equity Raid

Egg warned that, as consumers take on mounting levels of debt against the rising value of their homes, personal indebtedness could become a serious threat to future stability, especially if interest rates started to rise again…

With the majority of homes now valued considerably higher than their purchase price, homeowners are feeling financially comfortable and ignoring the need to save elsewhere…

This is a dangerous mindset to fall into. A drop in house prices could leave many homeowners financially exposed.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Opinion, Property Market, Quoteyness | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

[Housing Market Myths] House Prices Always Rise

Posted by Lex Fear on April 9, 2007

Some months ago I posted my intentions to blog regarding the UK housing market.

I will begin with addressing some of the myths that are commonly cited with absolutely no backing, usually by vested interests (VIs) and home owners.

The First Myth: House Prices Always Rise

This is usually the first one pulled out by those VIs who want to motivate you to stretch yourself to get on the first rung of the ladder. Statistics prove the exact opposite. Certain areas will rise and fall depending on age population, land value, attractiveness of the area and changes in infrastructure just to name a few. Below is a graph of average prices in the postcode area I currently live (edited to remove address details):

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Absolute Power, Bank Robbers, Buyer Beware, Duh!, Financial Terrorism, Housing Market Myths, Profiteering, Property Market, Video | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

[Burst Bubble] You Can’t Halt The Tide

Posted by Lex Fear on March 4, 2007

Is this the beginning of the downturn in the cycle?

1st rule of investing:
Buy low, sell high.

Posted in Bank Robbers, Buyer Beware, Financial Terrorism, Profiteering, Property Market, Uncircumcised Philistines, Wealth Creation | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

[Housing Market Myths] Prelude to The Next Housing Crash

Posted by Lex Fear on October 12, 2006

“…not an ‘if’, but ‘when’.”

In the next few months, I intend to explore some of the lies myths surrounding the UK housing swindle market, using multiple sources for my research. It’s a personal journey I’ve been on, from the self-deceptive prosperity teaching, to out of control debts, and finally an awareness of social injustice to the poor.

Cliff D’Arcy writes for the Motley Fool – Why The Next Housing Crash Will Be Worse! and gives 10 reasons:

  1. We overspend without care
  2. Our bills are soaring
  3. Mortgage debt is massively higher
  4. Non-Mortgage debt has exploded
  5. Mortgage equity withdrawal has soared
  6. Wage inflation is modest
  7. The savings ratio has plunged
  8. Interest rates are low
  9. The state safety-net has vanished
  10. Private insurance cover is pants

These reasons are just scratching the surface of what is a huge, growing, financial monster. I’m hoping to pull in as many sources as possible and put them into a concise article right here on Abandon All Fear.

The other evening I met up with a good friend I had not seen for a long time. He was the one who had introduced me to the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad, and I looked to him as a source of inspiration for learning the secrets to getting rich. At the time, it was as the British housing market was taking off. Everyone was talking about getting into property, more so in the church than anywhere else.

The story was different 3 years later. My friend had bought a property in the North, he had lost money on the sale. In fact he wasn’t the only person who lost money on property in my church, there were many buying into housing race and wealth creation, without any financial intelligence or understanding of market forces. Yet the self-propaganda continues amongst many. I listened to my friend tell me that he still thought property would rise, and how it’s still the best place to invest. I listened as he explained to me we have an influx of immigrants coming into the country which is driving prices up. He had a good argument, and 3 years ago my only choice would be to agree. But this time I was ready with some answers…

I agreed that there were many more people coming into the country than going out, however the market itself relies on confidence and the availability of people to buy. There is a limit on how far prices can go up, because there is a limit on people’s incomes. Not enough people can now afford to buy a house, and of those that do, they are stretching themselves to the limit. Bankruptcies are at record levels, and further increases in the interest rate will create millions more. Where bankruptcies rise so do repossessions, and where there repossessions, there is an urgency for the banks to cut their losses and get property off their books = price drop.

As I already stated, all markets work on confidence. Something that my friend could agree with me on is that the best time to sell is when everyone is buying, the best time to get out is when everyone is getting in. Everyone jumped on the property boat and it is now looking like a boat that will capsize.

People are struggling to sell, because they won’t bring their prices down, some are determined to make at least 30% profit, others who bought recently are simply trying minimise loss on their ridiculously priced mortgage. For both of these groups it’s taking them upto 18 months or more to sell, something in itself which would never have been heard of 10 years ago.

All it requires is a loss of confidence in property, just as everyone rushed in and the price shot through the roof. All it requires is everyone to panic and rush out which will have the opposite effect. I intend to present the evidence and show that this scenario is not an ‘if’, but ‘when’.

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Posted in Bank Robbers, Buyer Beware, Financial Terrorism, Housing Market Myths, Justice & Mercy, Profiteering, Propaganda, Property Market, Wealth Creation | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »